Thinking.
Hi, Johan here. This is where I write things down: startup stories, life updates, and the nerdy maths under small businesses. Some of it is about karaoke.
The Karaoke Loophole That Paid For College
YC asked about hacking a non-computer system. My honest answer starts with a Vancouver karaoke bar, private-room bookings, and $1.6M+ in liquor revenue during Covid.
My 2026 (Vibe)Coding Setup: Agent Operator Mode
Oh My ClaudeCode, Oh My Codex, Ralph loops, Aristotle, and the harness engineering habit that keeps turning agent mistakes into permanent fixes.
The Forged Failure Mentality: Why I Didn't Wake Up a Loser
Sometimes you win some, you lose some. Here is why failing an interview didn't make me wake up a loser, and what I am building next.
What I Would Do Differently If I Ever Build an Offshore Team Again
After the happier Vietnam office story, here is the postmortem: the office caught fire, the business failed, and these are the 3 lessons that cost me the most.
Opendoor's Silent Margin Killer (And How to Fix It)
Every time a seller accepts your offer, it means you probably overpaid. Congrats, your conversion rate might be evidence against you.
Life Update 12/25: Failing, Flailing, and Accidental Dior Coffee
The autopsy of a year. Business closures, bureaucracy hell, a 365-day headache, and somehow winning free coffee on the one day I didn't need it.
You're Competing Against Yourself — And Losing
6 listings in one square mile. Same buyers. Each one making the others cheaper. Here's the algorithm that stops iBuyers from cannibalizing their own portfolio.
Segment Anything 3 Meets Depth Anything — Zero-Shot Scene Decomposition
SAM3 gives you masks. Depth Anything V3 gives you metric depth. Stack them and you get instance-level 3D from a single photo. Here's the pipeline and the math.
Your Scheduler Doesn't Know What It Doesn't Know
"AC grinding noise" could be 45 min or 4 hours. A point estimate picks one. A distribution-aware model hedges the unpredictable jobs and reclaims the dead time.
I Opened an Office in Vietnam :D
I just got back from Vietnam. Somehow over the past year I helped my company open a physical office there, hire a team, trust a GM, and learn that context is heavier than payroll.
The Renovation Problem Nobody Talks About
Replace carpet, update kitchen, repaint, fix HVAC — or some subset. Each upgrade costs money, takes time, and generates value. Here's the algorithm that finds the optimal spend in milliseconds.
The No-Show Tax Nobody Invoices
A plumber's Tuesday has 6 slots. One no-show costs $250 in dead time. Overbooking recovers it — if you model cancellation probability per slot, not per day.
Your Quoting Process Has a 40% Mortality Rate
Most trade businesses close 30–40% of quotes. The other 60% die silently. Survival analysis tells you which quotes are still alive — and which ones to chase.
The Seven Places Your Spread Leaks
The buy-sell spread isn't one number. It's seven. Most iBuyers only track three. Here's the decomposition that finds the margin you didn't know you were losing.
Know How Fast a House Will Sell Before You Buy It
Days-on-market isn't random. It's predictable from 12 features available at acquisition. Here's the liquidity score that tells you which homes will sit.
Your P&L Is a Point Estimate (And It's Lying to You)
That $2.4M annual profit forecast? It's the mean of a distribution that includes scenarios where you lose $800K. Monte Carlo simulation shows you the full picture.
Nothing here yet. Give me a minute.
That's everything so far.
More coming. If a post made you want to argue with me, good. That's the point.